Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Here's why. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Theres significant variability among them, though. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. I think its very political right now, honestly. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. But thats not the picture I look at. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. People need to get a job, get out and work. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. He says hell vote for Trump. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Theres too much corruption. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Thus it would appear that bellwether. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. I think all politicians are crooks. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. I dont watch TV. Pre-performance Lobby events. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. He cares about the American people.. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Our roads need to be fixed. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Your email address will not be published. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). That is, until this year. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Its too big. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. He considers Trump pro-life. Required fields are marked *. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. On . While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. A lot of people think things are. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Youre not getting anybody perfect. I think he is more for giving to the people..